RESPON KEJADIAN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DENGAN GABUNGAN MODEL ATMOSFER-OSEANOGRAFI-HIDRODINAMIKA TERHADAP POTENSI GELOMBANG BADAI DAN INUNDASI DI AREA PESISIR KEPULAUAN TANIMBAR
Ocean and atmospheric interaction plays an important role in the formation of convective activities in the Tanimbar Islands, the interaction of the two systems can lead to the phenomenon of meso scale convective patterns and cause significant influence on the formation of rain and strong winds. The system of movement and increase in wind speed will have an impact on rising sea waves to the coast thus forming storm surge and coastal inundation. This study examines the effect of Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) on storm surge and coastal inundation potential in the Tanimbar Islands using a combination of Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment Transport (COAWST) and Advanced Circulation Model (ADCIRC) with the aim of developing early warning system for the port and coastal areas. The concept of the COAWST-ADCIRC model is coupled directly with OASIS3-MCT for Sea Surface Temperatures, the spectrum of shallow water and wind circulation. The response of wind speed shows an increase of 3.0 m / s - 4.5 m / s and ocean wave energy increases up to 0.4 - 0.6 meters and the level of sea level rise increases by 0.3 meters. Further verification was carried out with tidal observation data of semi-diurnal constituent patterns and Jason 3 altimetry satellite data. While the investigation of model quality test using the EnKF approach to determine the accuracy of shallow water patterns and inundated affected areas predition.
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