PROYEKSI KESESUAIAN AGROKLIMAT TANAMAN PADI BERDASARKAN SKENARIO REPRESENTATIVE CONCENTRATION PATHWAYS (RCP)4.5 DAN RCP8.5 DI PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR
Keywords:
Agroclimate suitability, RCP4.5, RCP8.5, climate change, paddy rice plantAbstract
To provide scientific support against effect of climate change, agroclimate suitability analysis up to the future need to be done in order to plan rice plantation. This research aimed to determine changes in paddy rice agroclimate suitability using RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios with 25 km resolution CSIRO climate model. Present period as a baseline is 1996-2005 and near projection period, Future 1 (2021-2030) and Future 2 (2031-2040) are used. Observation data consist of monthly rainfall to determine Oldeman climate type, monthly mean temperature, and elevation on all representative observation stations of ZOM. The result showed that under RCP4.5 scenario in Future 1, climate factors are not an obstacle for farmer while in Future 2 and under RCP8.5 scenario on both period, climate factors are be an obstacle in East Java so need more inputs such as irrigation and another technology because of S3 and N additional conditions.
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