STUDI POTENSI VARIABEL ANGIN ZONAL SEBAGAI PREDIKTOR UNTUK WILAYAH BENUA MARITIM (STUDI KASUS SUMATERA)
Keywords:
zonal wind, Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), Statistical DownscalingAbstract
Rainfall prediction using global model (Global Circulation Model) has a low resolution that can not provide local information. To obtain local-scale information, we need to apply a statistical downscaling method. Reliability of predictions is obtained by selecting predictor variables that are closely related to rainfall. The selection of predictor variables can be done based on spatial and temporal considerations that affecting predicted rainfall for annual and semi-annual cycle. The correlation analysis between predictor and rainfall were done by SVD (Singular Value Decomposition) method. The dominant mode of the expansion coefficient of the time series obtained from SVD is analyzed using the wavelet transform. The correlation results show that U850 zonal wind variable is closely related to rainfall in Sumatra with correlation of 0.77 and 92% of covariance. The U850 millibar wind variable can capture monsoon patterns (1 and 0.5 year) and the inter-annual pattern is ENSO (El Nino Southern Ocillation) with periods of 2, 4, and 12 years. Correlation between zonal wind (observation) around Sumatra with Nino index. 3.4 (>0.6). The U850 mb predictor capability is more reliable in the southern part of North Sumatra compared to southern Sumatra. In general, predictors can be used for the annual and semi-annual of rainfall in maritime region.
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.